At a place in Russia, Napoleon won a battle but lost a war. At the Battle of Borodino, Napoleon was not his usual alert, brilliant self. He was tired, and it was an effort to think and act. Why? Because he had a cold. He had a cold because his feet were wet. His orderly was drunk the night before and had neglected to make sure that the emperor would have a pair of dry boots, and so the history of the world was changed. We don't even know that orderly's name. But let us consider some other workings of blind chance...